Smotrich's 40-Settlement Plan Hits Naqab as Israeli Vote Looms

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has unveiled a plan to add one million Jewish residents to the Naqab and northern Israel. The proposal, released in August, calls for the construction of 40 new settlements and dozens of farms. It also includes the expansion of existing settlements and the creation of hundreds of thousands of new housing units. The goal is to extend a model of territorial control from the occupied West Bank into areas where Palestinian communities are concentrated.

The announcement lands as Israel heads to the polls on Tuesday, October 27. The election pits Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu against opposition forces led by former general Gadi Eisenkot. While most Israelis view this as a binary choice, Palestinian citizens of Israel face a different dilemma. They constitute 20 percent of the population but often feel that voting offers little prospect of policy change.

Since 1952, Palestinians who remained in the new state’s territory have held Israeli citizenship. Martial law, which governed their lives until 1966, has been lifted, yet formal rights have not secured substantive equality. Discriminatory laws and systemic underfunding of basic services continue to marginalize these communities. Land confiscation and strict regulation of education and culture have sought to detach Palestinians from their historical roots, promoting an identity separate from their national context.

The political mainstream in Israel continues to shift rightward. Settlers are encroaching on Palestinian boundaries, and violence in mixed cities has increased. This process began in 2021 in cities like Jaffa and Lydd, where religious-nationalist groups established themselves in Palestinian neighborhoods. Since October 2023, the pace has accelerated. Organized crime groups have also gained advanced weapons, reportedly stolen from army stockpiles or smuggled across borders, leading to hundreds of deaths in Palestinian communities.

National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir is expanding the state's capacity to suppress unrest. He has advocated for the National Guard, a force prompted by the May 2021 Dignity Uprising in towns like Haifa and Umm al-Fahm. Ben-Gvir has also issued 300,000 gun licenses since taking office. These measures aim to normalize civilian policing and deepen the militarization of everyday life. The government has also integrated settler security squads into a broader security framework.

Mansour Abbas, who leads the United Arab List (Ra’am), argues that supporting the anti-Netanyahu camp can halt the far-right agenda. However, his party’s experience in the 2021 coalition government proved difficult. Ra’am failed to implement fundamental changes despite being in power. In 2022, Mazen Ghnaim, a Ra’am member, admitted he could not push through beneficial policies and faced heavy criticism from his own communities. This history suggests that electoral participation alone may not reverse the structural discrimination facing Palestinian citizens.

The current election forces a choice between two paths that may not address core grievances. A further four years of far-right rule poses immediate threats to rights and community safety. Yet, the opposition does not appear ready to reverse the demographic and legal shifts already underway. For many Palestinian voters, the act of voting is becoming a statement of presence rather than a promise of change.