Israeli voters face choice between two blocs that lack majority support

Israeli citizens will cast ballots on Tuesday in the first national legislative election since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023. The vote determines which alliance will lead the government during a period of ongoing conflict in Gaza and Lebanon, as well as intense domestic debate over judicial reform and security policy.

No coalition currently appears capable of securing the 61 seats required for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. A survey by public broadcaster KAN, released just before a pre-election publication ban took effect on Friday, projected the opposition alliance would win 52 seats. The bloc supporting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was projected to win 50 seats. The remaining seats would go to unaffiliated parties, including the Ra'am and Joint List, which represent Arab-majority constituencies.

The pro-Netanyahu coalition is anchored by the Likud party and includes United Torah Judaism, Shas, Otzma Yehudi, and Religious Zionism-Zehut. The opposition consists of four Jewish-led movements: Yashar, Democrats, Yisrael Beiteinu, and the Together alliance. A party must secure at least 3.25 percent of the national vote to enter parliament.

Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, has led the country for more than 15 of the last 17 years. He faces intense scrutiny over alleged security failures leading up to the 2023 attacks and corruption charges he has contested since 2019. A loss would leave him more vulnerable in his ongoing trial, which could result in a prison sentence upon conviction. He is also subject to an International Criminal Court arrest warrant for war crimes.

Opposition leader Yair Lapid has joined the Together alliance alongside former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. Other opposition figures include Gadi Eisenkot of the Yashar party and Yair Golan of the Democrats. Avigdor Lieberman leads Yisrael Beiteinu. Mairav Zonszein, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, said secular and liberal factions view this election as the last chance to preserve Israel’s liberal democratic order.

Both major blocs have indicated they will not form a governing coalition with the Arab-led parties for the time being. This stance could force a minority government or trigger another election if negotiations fail. The Central Elections Committee had voted last month to bar the Joint List and Ra'am from running, but the Supreme Court reversed that decision. The court did, however, remove Balad leader Sami Abu Shehadeh from the race over an article he wrote describing the October 7 attacks as an important historical event.

Approximately 7.3 million Israeli citizens are eligible to vote, including roughly 1.2 million Palestinian citizens of Israel. Polls suggest turnout in the Arab community could reach 60 percent. At that level, Arab parties could win as many as 15 seats. Campaigners are targeting a 70 percent turnout, which would be the highest in decades.

Netanyahu has argued that his rivals are likely to partner with Arab parties, claiming only Likud can prevent that arrangement. Joseph Mansour, a former aide to Knesset member Ayman Odeh, suggested this strategy could allow Netanyahu to remain in office as a caretaker prime minister if no bloc secures a majority. Meanwhile, roughly three million adult Palestinians in Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem will not have a say in the government that controls their borders and legal status.