Likud Divided: Election Eve Uncertainty

Nearly one-third of Israeli voters remained undecided as the nation prepared to cast ballots on Tuesday, October 27. This statistic has fueled a sharp internal debate within the Likud party regarding Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s chances of retaining power.

Party insiders reported a split in confidence levels among leadership members. Some officials expressed certainty in a victory, citing internal forecasts from Shlomo Filber, who manages the party’s polling operations. A Likud source described the sentiment as binary: either Filber’s projections prove correct and he is celebrated, or the party faces a setback. The source noted that many members were either very sure of themselves or significantly less confident.

The primary anxiety within the party stems from the activities of nonprofits and organizations supporting opposition candidates. Party sources described a widespread campaign that operated throughout the election period without direct party funding. These efforts included social media drives, physical signage, field events, and transportation services for Arab voters. The groups also attempted to bring Israelis living abroad home to vote. One official labeled this activity the 'nonprofits affair on steroids,' arguing it gave rival parties a support network that bypassed standard party financing rules.

Likud also criticized the Central Elections Committee. The party claimed the committee focused heavily on enforcing limits for campaign videos and public resource use while overlooking the work of these third-party organizations. Likud noted that the sources did not provide documentation for the specific funding amounts cited or for the claim that the activities were illegal.

As the vote approaches, Likud is organizing a large ground operation for Election Day. Despite restrictions on gathering information from polling stations, the party is focusing on preventing right-wing voters from shifting their support to smaller political slates. The election date allows Netanyahu’s current government to serve out its full term before the results are tallied.

Efforts to consolidate the right-wing vote have seen mixed results. Negotiations to persuade Brig.-Gen. (res.) Ofer Winter to exit the race failed. Winter, a former commander of the Givati Brigade and leader of the People of Israel party, remains in the contest. Rabbi Eli Sadan, who participated in the talks, issued a statement supporting Winter’s continued candidacy.

Likud is also courting supporters of other right-wing lists, including the joint ticket of Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha. The Ahi party, led by Rabbi Abergel, has already withdrawn from the race following discussions with Likud. During these talks, the parties considered legislation that would allow the Ahi party to name a deputy minister.